Padres Star Joe Musgrove Picking Pete Alonso To Win Home Run Derby

Want to make a quick buck on Monday night's Home Run Derby? Bet on Pete Alonso ... 'cause Joe Musgrove -- one of the best pitchers in baseball -- tells TMZ Sports he thinks the Mets' star first baseman will win it easily!!

The San Diego Padres ace -- who's personally thrown against nearly every one of the participants in this year's derby -- said even though it's a stacked field, he believes the Polar Bear will come out on top for a third straight time.

"Dude," he said, "it's hard to pick anybody other than Polar Pete, man."

Musgrove told us he believes the 24-year-old's swing is just too good for the other seven participants -- Kyle Schwarber, Albert Pujols, Juan Soto, Jose Ramirez, Corey Seager, Julio Rodriguez and Ronald Acuna -- to beat out.

"His swing is so easy," Musgrove said. "Simple. Repeatable."

As for someone who he'd love to see compete with Alonso in the finals of Monday night's event -- Joe told us he's going to be pulling for Pujols there.

The 29-year-old, who's making his first All-Star appearance this week (and will no doubt be hopped up on his favorite Celsius drink at the events), added that he's hoping to meet Shohei Ohtani while out at the fun festivities.