Hot Dog Contest Vet Geoff Esper Says Win Would Have Asterisk If Chestnut Not Competing

Joey Chestnut's absence from the Nathan's Hot Dog Contest would have a major impact on whoever ends up winning the event this year ... so says 2023 runner-up Geoff Esper, who tells TMZ Sports the victory would be tainted if it's not over Jaws.

We caught up with the competitive eater -- and new favorite to win the Fourth of July event -- shortly after the news of Chestnut's status broke ... and while the 16-time mustard belt champion's omission helps his odds, he understands people wouldn't be nearly as impressed if Joey ain't there.

"100% there's gonna be a huge asterisk on that," he said. "Like two or three years ago, I said, 'Well, even if I do win it because Joey's not there, there's gonna be an asterisk.' I'll admit that to anybody."

Esper knows Jaws' influence goes far beyond the results ... noting Joey's role in getting the crowd into the festivities on Independence Day.

"I don't know what it's going to be like this year without him there," Esper said. "I was there the year he lost to Matt Stonie, and that was crazy! I think it's going to be a totally different contest. He's usually the last one introduced, he comes out it's a big show and we have time to get ready. I don't know what they are planning."

While some folks online are saying the event won't be the same -- and others have said they won't watch it at all without Chestnut -- Esper thinks the whole situation might actually make for a more competitive finish with the rest of the field.

"I think it might be even more exciting this year because of how close the four of us are to the winning number," he said. "The winning number is not going to be in the 70s, but it might come down to the last second."

"The ten minutes might be up, and you might not even know who won because they gotta count the plates and look at the debris," he added. "I'm definitely going to be way more nervous."

As we previously reported, the whole issue between Major League Eating and Chestnut stems from an endorsement deal he inked with a plant-based food company ... with the org. saying it was a blatant violation.

Chestnut later came out and said he was free to do whatever he wanted ... and was gutted over MLE's decision to keep him out of the contest.