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Pete Buttigieg says while his odds to the win the White House might be similar to Donald Trump's a year out from election day ... he's going about getting there with a full 180.

The South Bend Mayor spoke to us Wednesday on "TMZ Live" after news broke that he's the leading Democratic candidate in Iowa, according to a new poll ... not to mention that his chances at going the distance are eerily similar to DT's from this time 4 years ago.

He weighs in on both, telling us the new poll reflects what he's been feeling on the ground ... a connection to voters and a groundswell that just can't be stopped.

As for the Trump comparison, he says the only thing he wants to share with 45 is the final destination. That said, he does admit there are similarities in how folks perceived their campaigns early on -- namely, they were seen as odd men out despite later success.

Then, we got into what could become a problem ... how PB plans to deal with religious voters -- especially in the South -- who may view the fact he's gay as a dealbreaker.

California Governor Gavin Newsom says President Trump isn't going to bully the Golden State into doing what he wants -- even with threats that could put thousands of lives at risk.

The Gov. was on "TMZ Live" Tuesday with a fierce response to POTUS tweeting he might cut federal funding to help fight California's wildfires ... if Newsom didn't get his "act together" to stop the fires.

Newsom made it clear he's not about to bow because the reality is the Prez needs Cali more than it needs him. He says Trump likes to spew threats as "political theater," and also because he can't stand NOT getting his way in the most populous state.

As the Gov. put it, Trump's political pressure won't fly in Cali.

On a much lighter note, we also got Gov. Newsom -- who just might have the best gubernatorial hairline in America -- to talk about this year's CA Hall of Fame inductees ... who include George Lopez, RuPaul, Wolfgang Puck and the late Dr. Maya Angelou.

The ceremony goes down in Sacramento on December 10, and Newsom's honored to be inducting such a diverse group of talented people.

President Trump's impeachment hearing is turning into #paperclipgate ... because Rep. Jackie Speier is addressing witnesses while a paper clip is stuck in her hair!!!

Check out this wacky scene from Capitol Hill ... the Congresswoman from California was thanking Bill Taylor and George Kent for their testimonies when several viewers picked up on a shiny, seemingly metal object clearly visible in her 'do.

It's pretty bizarre, and most folks are convinced it's a paper clip. Sure looks like one, and that begs the obvious question -- WHY is there a paper clip just chillin' in Jackie's hair?

Look, we know this has zero impact on the real issue of Trump's potential impeachment ... but it's also hard to ignore when you see a Congresswoman rocking a paper clip on live TV!!!

Pete Buttigieg is now the Democratic favorite in Iowa, but he might have even more good fortune based on how his odds stack up against Donald Trump's from 4 years ago.

According to USBookies.com, Mayor Pete is in a similar position to Donald Trump during the same time frame -- 1 year out from the 2016 election. Pete is sitting at a 6/1 chance to nab the Democratic nom, while Trump was 3/1 around this time in 2015. As for the Presidency -- Pete's odds are 12/1 and Trump was at 10/1. Pretty dang close, if you ask us.

The odds were set by gamblers betting on USBookies.com, BTW.

As for who's gonna take the big prize next November, Trump is still the odds-on favorite -- regardless of who runs against him -- at 6/5.

Back to Pete though ... the reason why it's interesting that he's got a bit of a Trump vibe (to his odds, that is) around the same time the guy did back then is because -- like DT -- Mayor Pete is very much viewed as a dark horse candidate.

Take into consideration that he is now the leading candidate out in Iowa as of Tuesday, and it makes ya wonder if he'll have the same success Trump himself had in the run-up to 2016.

Kanye West knows what's going to put him in the Oval Office in 2024 -- he's reaffirming his plans to run while revealing his platform and a name change ... a huge one.

Kanye dropped bombshell after bombshell Thursday in NYC, where he spoke at the Fast Company Innovation Festival. Seated next to Yeezy designer Steven Smith ... Ye told the crowd, matter-of-factly, he will be running for Prez.

Watch the video, because he didn't get the reaction he was expecting ... at all. The audience laughed, and Kanye stared back with a deadpan look and said, "What y'all laughing at?"

He went on to make the point that by 2024, Yeezy brand "will have created so many jobs, I'm not gonna run [for President], I'll walk." There was an uncomfortable silence following that, and he went on to say celebrities are terrified to speak their minds, including himself.

He admitted his wife, Kim Kardashian West -- who was in the audience -- would probably tell him later he was too outspoken at the event.

Ye also complained about Forbes' reluctance to label him a billionaire and announced he'll change his name to "Christian Genius Billionaire Kanye West" ... just to stick it to the outlet.

Donald Trump Jr. didn't hold any punches when going toe-to-toe with Whoopi Goldberg and Joy Behar ... clapping back hard when the cohosts called out POTUS.

The heated exchange went down Thursday morning on "The View" where DTJ appeared, with his GF, Kimberly Guilfoyle, to promote his new book, 'Triggered.' The conversation throughout was tense but things really reached a boiling point when the panel accused President Trump of lowering the level of discourse in the country ... on almost all topics.

Trump Jr. turned the tables ... first on Joy by calling her out for allegedly wearing blackface. Joy took offense to the accusation and denied it. FWIW, Joy admitted in 2016 she had dressed as a "beautiful African woman" at a Halloween party when she was 29, and yes ... it involved makeup "a little bit darker than my skin."

Junior emphasized his point that "we've all done things that we regret" ... by going after Whoopi for defending disgraced director Roman Polanski amid rape allegations. Back in 2009, Whoopi said whatever Polanski's guilty of wasn't "rape-rape."

Rep. Ilhan Omar is a single woman now in the eyes of the law -- and she got there in record time too!!!

The freshman Minnesota Congresswoman -- who's part of the so-called "Squad" -- just had her divorce case adjudicated in her home state -- where a judge signed off on her split from now-ex-hubby Ahmed Hirsi ... who's also the father of her 3 minor children.

The details regarding custody arrangements, child and spousal support and everything else weren't made immediately clear.

Rep. Omar filed for divorce just over 30 days ago ... so it's wild her petition has already been granted. You'll recall, in her initial court docs ... she wanted a judge to deny spousal support to either person but was down for joint legal and physical custody of the kids.

She wanted the court to decide who should get child support.

This is Omar's second marriage -- she was previously married to a guy named Ahmed Elmi, whom she split from in 2011, and finalized her divorce in 2017. She then legally married Hirsi just last year after an on-again-off-again relationship spanning years.

Now, they're over ... and she's back on the market.

Justice Sonia Sotomayor is just like us on the weekends -- ready to unwind ... and, more importantly, ready to uncork.

The Supreme Court associate judge was spotted at a mom-and-pop shop in D.C. over the weekend, where she eventually made her way to the booze aisle, and seemed to take a liking to a couple bottles of reds. In this photo, it looks like she's deciding between the two.

If she's truly wise -- and we know she is -- she probably took both of them home and decided later. Seems like a lady next to her was making other suggestions as well.

Can't blame Sonia for loading up on the vino ahead of what appears to be a busy schedule this week for her and her SCOTUS colleagues. They're scheduled to hear arguments on a number of cases Monday through Wednesday -- which include some meaty topics like immigration, police conduct, maritime law, copyright claims and others.

The heroic dog that helped take down ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in Syria will not be awarded the Medal of Honor.

Conan the Dog rose to fame when President Trump tweeted a picture of the K9 used in the special ops mission. He even retweeted a doctored photo of Conan being decorated with the Medal of Honor. And, the dog is going to The White House next week, so it seemed a medal was in the offing.

A Dept. of Defense spokesperson tells TMZ, animals are not eligible to receive hardware like the Medal of Honor. So, the only perk the pooch might get is something from McDonalds.

Trump said Conan was injured during the raid, but it doesn't seem like it was that bad, because she was back on active duty a day or so later.

Beto O'Rourke is dropping out of the presidential race after months of struggling to regain the initial support he had after battling Ted Cruz for Senate ... a race that also ended in disappointment.

The Texas politician reportedly called it quits on gunning for POTUS mid-week as the rest of the Democratic presidential hopefuls were preparing to gather in Iowa. Beto's not expected to run for Senate in 2020 either, nor endorse anyone else anytime soon.

O'Rourke planned to announce his withdrawal Friday night in Iowa and send an email to his supporters ... this according to the NYT. In a draft of that announcement, Beto cites a lack of means to move forward successfully, but says he's proud of being an advocate for gun control and climate change.

Beto makes it official by saying ... "My service to the country will not be as a candidate or as the nominee."

His exit completes an interesting journey in which he shot out as a potential front-runner to challenge Donald Trump, but lost steam on the heels of some bizarre livesteam videos and his infamous "Vanity Fair" cover.

Beto's recent performance in the Dem debates didn't do much to gain him any affection back -- or boost his numbers -- so the writing was pretty much on the wall.

Katie Hill -- the California Congresswoman who's resigned amid a nude photos scandal -- says she's leaving because of "gutter politics," and she's taking a parting shot at prominent men in power.

Rep. Hill outlined her reasons Thursday for resigning during her farewell speech on the House floor ... blaming a "misogynistic culture" and right-wing media for stopping at nothing to sabotage her career.

Hill claims since her nude photos surfaced last week, along with allegations of 2 extramarital relationships, she's been holed up at home ... in fear for her life.

She says she's received countless vile messages -- including threats of releasing more of her private info and photos without her consent -- so she's leaving for the well-being of her loved ones and herself.

As we reported ... Hill believes the scandal that's forced her resignation was orchestrated by her allegedly "abusive," and now estranged husband, Kenny Heslep. She's also flat-out accused him of leaking of the photos, and says she's considering taking legal action.

However, during her speech, Hill made it clear there's only one investigation that deserves national attention right now ... and it's the impeachment inquiry of President Trump. The house voted Thursday, as expected, overwhelmingly in favor of going forward with the impeachment inquiry, which will now include open hearings.

Barack Obama doesn't want to hear about your outrage -- not if it's just on Twitter -- because he believes a society that's judgmental to the max is one that doesn't make it better.

The former President called out the current "woke" culture -- especially on social media -- while speaking Tuesday at the Obama Foundation Summit in Chicago. Obama's big point ... everything is not black and white in this world, and people make mistakes.

He told the audience ... "The world is messy. There are ambiguities. People who do really good stuff have flaws," and said the idea that everyone should be pure and perfect all the time needs to go away.

Barack added a hypothetical example of getting on Twitter and calling someone out for doing or saying something wrong, and then sitting back and feeling satisfied about it.

Kanye West has his facts messed up when it comes to Plan B and abortion -- two things he mistakenly thinks go hand in hand.

A rep for Foundation Consumer Healthcare -- the pharma company that makes the Plan B One-Step contraceptive -- tells TMZ that their pill is in no way connected to the process of abortion ... even though Ye appeared to conflate the topics.

You'll recall ... Kanye mentioned Plan B and abortion in a rant he went on about the Democratic party, which he thinks has brainwashed African-Americans into killing babies.

That is simply NOT the case though, when it comes to Plan B ... so says FCH. The company tells us plainly, "Plan B emergency contraception is a safe and effective backup option when used as directed after unprotected sex or birth control failure." Hmmm ... go on.

They add, "Plan B helps prevent pregnancy before it starts by delaying ovulation. Plan B is not an abortion pill – it will not harm an existing pregnancy and it will not be effective if a woman is already pregnant." In short, it ain't an abortion pill, despite misconceptions.

A rep for Planned Parenthood sounded off as well, saying black women have actually had a leading role in the fight for abortion access, sex education and reproductive health rights.

The spokesperson adds, "As Black women, we make our own decisions about our bodies and pregnancies, and want and deserve to have access to the best medical care available. Misinformation like this is meant to shame us and keep us from making our own health care decisions. Black women want and deserve support and access to the full range of reproductive health care, but this persistent lie is threatening our ability to obtain it."

Julian Castro is the Castro twin running for President, but that doesn't mean his brother -- Rep. Joaquin Castro -- isn't thinking about protecting his own neck, IF Julian goes the distance.

We ran into the Castro twins Monday at Reagan National Airport in D.C., but instead of talking to the Democratic candidate -- we've talked to Julian plenty before -- we got the Congressman's take on something pretty fascinating.

Seeing as how they're identical twins ... would Joaquin be eligible for his own Secret Service detail, if his bro were commander in chief?

Joaquin certainly hopes so! As he tells us ... people still mistake him for Julian a lot, even though Joaquin's switched some things up about his look.

Apparently, it hasn't been enough ... 'cause he says plenty of folks can't believe they're seeing Julian in the flesh, even though they're not.

The distinguished gentleman from Texas cops to going along with it sometimes. Hey, it's good, clean, twin-brotherly fun.

The Navy SEAL credited with firing the fatal shots on Osama Bin Laden says the killing of ISIS leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, should make Americans feel a sense of pride ... and he wants us all to bask in the glory.

We got retired SEAL, Robert O'Neill, at Reagan Airport in D.C. and he told us he's a little jealous he wasn't on the ground in Syria when U.S. forces took out the world's top terror leader.

Robert says he couldn't be prouder of all the brave men, women and K-9s who carried out the stealth mission ... and he recounts what it feels like to kill a notorious terrorist.

While Robert admits the fight against ISIS and Al-Qaeda is far from over ... he thinks it's important for Americans to pat themselves on the back for this huge victory, and he hopes those involved in the mission can come home and be with their families.

No word if al-Baghdadi's killers took a page from Robert's book and bumped The Game's "Red Nation" before the raid.

President Trump is back to taking shots at Jussie Smollett and Chicago prosecutors who dropped criminal charges against him ... calling the "attack" a sham and comparing it to the impeachment inquiry.

Trump riled up his base Monday during a fundraiser at his Chicago hotel ... bringing up the Jussie case in front of a room filled with cops and also bashing police chief Eddie Johnson.

The Prez went after Jussie for bringing "MAGA country" into it and said the actor actually beat up himself. TMZ broke the story ... Jussie claimed his attackers yelled, "MAGA country" as they fled, dousing him with bleach and putting a rope around his neck.

Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot, who was elected after Jussie's alleged attack, ripped Trump's speech on social media ... saying it's no surprise Trump brought his "insulting, ignorant buffoonery" to her city.

It's not the first time Trump has lashed out at Jussie -- it's at least the fourth occasion.

Trump's used Smollett as a rallying cry in Wisconsin and Michigan, and tweeted about the case a few times -- insinuating the real hate crime was against "MAGA country" and calling the dropping of the charges and "embarrassment" to the nation.